Who Will Win the Next War?
The July/August 2026 issue of Foreign Affairs asks a provocative question: Who will win the next war? The collective answer is that there is no inevitable victor. The era in which a single nation could expect to dominate every dimension of global power is giving way to a more competitive and contested international order.
The United States retains extraordinary advantages, including the world’s strongest network of alliances, a dynamic economy, technological leadership, and unmatched military capabilities. China has become a formidable competitor with immense industrial capacity, but it also faces significant demographic, economic, and political challenges. Russia remains a dangerous military power despite the costs of its war in Ukraine. Iran has demonstrated that determined regional powers can wield influence far beyond their economic size through missile capabilities, proxy networks, and asymmetric warfare. Europe, India, Japan, and South Korea each contribute important strengths, yet none possesses the comprehensive capabilities to emerge as the world’s singular dominant power.
The issue argues that the next war will not be won simply by the nation with the largest military or the most sophisticated weapons. Victory will belong to the country—or coalition—that can integrate military capability, industrial production, technological innovation, resilient supply chains, economic strength, and effective leadership. Adaptability, rather than sheer size, will be the decisive advantage.
Perhaps the most important lesson is that global influence depends on domestic stability. A nation weakened by political division, economic stagnation, or ineffective governance will find it increasingly difficult to project power abroad. Strong institutions, public confidence, economic resilience, and technological innovation are not merely domestic priorities—they are essential components of national security.
One idea echoed throughout the issue is the need to balance efficiency with resilience. Over the past several decades, governments and businesses often optimized for speed, cost, and just-in-time production. Those approaches increased efficiency but frequently reduced the capacity to absorb shocks. The next war will reward nations that preserve enough redundancy, manufacturing depth, supply chain diversity, and institutional flexibility to continue functioning under sustained pressure. Resilience is not the opposite of efficiency; it is what allows an efficient system to endure when conditions change.
The broader conclusion is both sobering and encouraging. No single country is presently positioned to exercise uncontested global dominance. Instead, success will belong to those nations that continually adapt, strengthen their domestic foundations, and cultivate enduring partnerships. In the emerging international order, resilience at home will remain the foundation of leadership abroad.
Copyright 2026. The Informed Kansan. All rights reserved.