Decline Compared With What?

Oct 18

Key Takeaways

A country can face serious decline while remaining wealthier, more capable, and more influential than much of the world.
Present strength and future direction are different measures. Responsible leadership pays attention to both.
For America—and Kansas—the challenge is to preserve our advantages while addressing problems before they become harder to solve.

Why It Matters

In a recent Foreign Affairs essay, “China’s Long Twilight,” Carl Minzner argues that China’s aging population and increasingly rigid political system threaten its future. Fewer workers will support more retirees, while a government organized around loyalty to one leader may struggle to make necessary adjustments.

It is a serious argument. But it also raises a question that deserves more attention in discussions of national decline:

Decline compared with what?

China could experience much of the deterioration Minzner describes and still retain industrial capacity, infrastructure, technical expertise, and military power that most countries could scarcely hope to acquire. America could perform well below its potential and remain a country where millions of people would prefer to build their lives.

Those observations do not dismiss either country’s problems. They establish the scale against which those problems should be judged.

Strength and Direction

A country’s current position and the direction it is heading are separate questions.

A wealthy household can spend beyond its means for years before facing a reckoning. A household with modest resources can steadily improve its circumstances through sound decisions. The first remains wealthier for some time, even as the second follows a healthier course.

Countries are considerably more complicated, but the distinction holds. Substantial advantages can cushion the consequences of poor decisions. They can also make those consequences easier to overlook.

That is why impressive infrastructure does not settle questions about China’s future. Nor do political dysfunction and fiscal problems, by themselves, establish that America has exhausted its advantages.

We need to assess both what a country possesses and how effectively it maintains the foundations of that strength.

The Ability to Adjust

The most useful part of Minzner’s argument concerns a government’s ability to respond when circumstances change.

In his account, China’s earlier reforms succeeded because leaders permitted experimentation and adjusted policies that were failing. Increasing concentration of power now makes that flexibility more difficult. Officials have stronger incentives to demonstrate loyalty, protect established interests, and avoid delivering unwelcome information.

The broader principle applies well beyond China: institutions need reliable ways to recognize mistakes and correct them.

No government will anticipate every difficulty. Demographic shifts, economic disruptions, and technological change will test even capable leadership. What matters is whether leaders can hear inconvenient evidence, reconsider assumptions, and act while manageable problems remain manageable.

Present success offers little assurance if the capacity to adjust is eroding.

A Useful Standard for Kansas

The same distinction can improve our conversations closer to home.

When we evaluate Kansas, we should be clear about the comparison. Are we doing better than we did a decade ago? Better than neighboring states? As well as our resources and opportunities should allow?

Each question tells us something different.

Being ahead of another state does not establish that our policies are sound. Falling behind on one measure does not establish that everything is failing. A useful assessment identifies the particular problem, examines its causes, and asks what improvement would look like.

That approach leaves room for pride in our communities alongside a clear view of their needs. It also encourages more practical questions about education, infrastructure, public finances, and the conditions that allow families and businesses to prosper.

My Perspective

I am skeptical of accounts that make decline sound inevitable. I am equally skeptical of assurances that our existing advantages will carry us indefinitely.

America has considerable strengths. So does Kansas. A fair assessment should give those strengths their due without treating them as permanent possessions.

The responsibility of leadership is to maintain what works, recognize what is weakening, and prepare for circumstances that will differ from those of the past.

Our advantages are real. So is our responsibility to maintain them.

Further Reading: Carl Minzner, “China’s Long Twilight,” Foreign Affairs, October 5, 2026⁠.

Paul Wilson